 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
||
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
| 1 | 1/1 | 返回列表 |
| 查看: 809 | 回復(fù): 0 | ||
yexuqing木蟲之王 (文學(xué)泰斗)
太陽系系主任
|
[交流]
Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected
|
|
Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected 2023~2024年創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的海表溫度躍升：不太可能，但并不意外 ▲ 作者：Jens Terhaar, Friedrich A. Burger, Linus Vogt, Thomas L. Fr?licher & Thomas F. Stocker ▲鏈接： https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08674-z ▲摘要： 從2023年4月開始，全球海表溫度在一年多的時間里處于創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平，在2023年4月至2024年3月期間，平均比2015—2016年的記錄高出0.25℃。這一事件的范圍接近全球，強度前所未有，引發(fā)了人們的疑問：它有多罕見？氣候模型是否能代表海表溫度如此破紀(jì)錄的躍升？ 研究組構(gòu)建了基于觀測的合成時間序列，表明在當(dāng)前長期變暖趨勢下，全球海表溫度的躍升至少打破了之前的記錄0.25℃，這是512年一遇的事件（205年一遇至1185年一遇；95%置信區(qū)間）。如果沒有全球變暖的趨勢，這樣的事件幾乎不可能發(fā)生。 通過對各種全耦合氣候模型進(jìn)行270次模擬，研究組發(fā)現(xiàn)這些模型成功模擬了全球海表溫度的破紀(jì)錄躍升，從而支持了這些模型在理解此類事件的特征、驅(qū)動因素和后果方面的實用性。這些模型模擬表明，2023~2024年海表溫度破紀(jì)錄的躍升是一個極端事件，之后海表溫度預(yù)計將恢復(fù)到預(yù)期的長期變暖趨勢。 ▲ Abstract： Global ocean surface temperatures were at record levels for more than a year from April 2023 onwards, exceeding the previous record in 2015–2016 by 0.25?°C on average between April 2023 and March 2024. The nearly global extent and unprecedented intensity of this event prompted questions about how exceptional it was and whether climate models can represent such record-shattering jumps in surface ocean temperatures. Here we construct observation-based synthetic time series to show that a jump in global sea surface temperatures that breaks the previous record by at least 0.25?°C is a 1-in-512-year event under the current long-term warming trend (1-in-205-year to 1-in-1,185-year event; 95% confidence interval). Without a global warming trend, such an event would have been practically impossible. Using 270 simulations from a wide range of fully coupled climate models, we show that these models successfully simulate such record-shattering jumps in global ocean surface temperatures, underpinning the models’ usefulness in understanding the characteristics, drivers and consequences of such events. These model simulations suggest that the record-shattering jump in surface ocean temperatures in 2023–2024 was an extreme event after which surface ocean temperatures are expected to revert to the expected long-term warming trend. |
回復(fù)此樓
相關(guān)版塊跳轉(zhuǎn)
我要訂閱樓主 yexuqing 的主題更新
| 1 | 1/1 | 返回列表 |
| 最具人氣熱帖推薦 [查看全部] | 作者 | 回/看 | 最后發(fā)表 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
[考研] 材料工程330分求調(diào)劑，一志愿985 +5 | 小材化本科 2026-03-07 | 5/250 |
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
|
[考研] 一志愿安徽大學(xué)材料工程專碩313分，求調(diào)劑的學(xué)校 +7 | Yu先生 2026-03-10 | 9/450 |
|
|
|
[考研] 290求調(diào)劑 +3 | 柯淮然 2026-03-10 | 8/400 |
|
|
|
[考研] 0857 資源與環(huán)境 285分 +5 | 未名考生 2026-03-09 | 5/250 |
|
|
[考研] 282分材料專業(yè)求調(diào)劑院校 +16 | 楓橋ZL 2026-03-09 | 23/1150 |
|
|
|
[考研] 304求調(diào)劑（085602一志愿985） +8 | 化工人999 2026-03-09 | 8/400 |
|
|
|
[考研] 0856求調(diào)劑 +3 | squirtle11 2026-03-07 | 3/150 |
|
|
|
[考研] 0856材料與化工290求調(diào)劑 +7 | Nebulala 2026-03-08 | 8/400 |
|
|
|
[考研] 理學(xué)287分求調(diào)劑 +4 | 看看我. 2026-03-05 | 4/200 |
|
|
|
[考研] 083000環(huán)境科學(xué)與工程調(diào)劑 +5 | 加油呀fxy 2026-03-07 | 6/300 |
|
|
|
[考研] 288求調(diào)劑085600材料與化工 +13 | Daunrin 2026-03-07 | 15/750 |
|
|
|
[考研] 081700學(xué)碩一志愿北京化工大學(xué)數(shù)二英一過六級有競賽求調(diào)劑 +5 | galaxary 2026-03-07 | 7/350 |
|
|
|
[考研] 一志愿211 化學(xué)305分求調(diào)劑 +3 | 0703楊悅305分 2026-03-05 | 3/150 |
|
|
|
[考研] 0307化學(xué)求調(diào)劑 +6 | 0ok0k 2026-03-07 | 6/300 |
|
|
|
[考研] 070300化學(xué)求調(diào)劑292分 +3 | 打烊eee 2026-03-07 | 3/150 |
|
|
|
[考研] 誠求調(diào)劑，323分 有專利/科研/實習(xí)經(jīng)歷 +6 | 橙子cyx 2026-03-06 | 8/400 |
|
|
|
[考研] 一志愿哈爾濱工業(yè)大學(xué)0856材料與化工，前三科206，總分283，求調(diào)劑 +7 | 26考研求調(diào)劑 2026-03-06 | 7/350 |
|
|
|
[考研]
 材料工程調(diào)劑
+6
|
zbcm_zbcm 2026-03-05 | 6/300 |
|
|
|
[考研] 復(fù)試調(diào)劑 +5 | 呼呼？~+123456 2026-03-05 | 5/250 |
|
|
|
[考研] 304求調(diào)劑 +4 | 曼殊2266 2026-03-05 | 4/200 |
|