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yexuqing木蟲之王 (文學(xué)泰斗)
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[交流]
Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected
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Record sea surface temperature jump in 2023–2024 unlikely but not unexpected 2023~2024年創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄的海表溫度躍升：不太可能，但并不意外 ▲ 作者：Jens Terhaar, Friedrich A. Burger, Linus Vogt, Thomas L. Fr?licher & Thomas F. Stocker ▲鏈接： https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-08674-z ▲摘要： 從2023年4月開始，全球海表溫度在一年多的時(shí)間里處于創(chuàng)紀(jì)錄水平，在2023年4月至2024年3月期間，平均比2015—2016年的記錄高出0.25℃。這一事件的范圍接近全球，強(qiáng)度前所未有，引發(fā)了人們的疑問：它有多罕見？氣候模型是否能代表海表溫度如此破紀(jì)錄的躍升？ 研究組構(gòu)建了基于觀測(cè)的合成時(shí)間序列，表明在當(dāng)前長(zhǎng)期變暖趨勢(shì)下，全球海表溫度的躍升至少打破了之前的記錄0.25℃，這是512年一遇的事件（205年一遇至1185年一遇；95%置信區(qū)間）。如果沒有全球變暖的趨勢(shì)，這樣的事件幾乎不可能發(fā)生。 通過對(duì)各種全耦合氣候模型進(jìn)行270次模擬，研究組發(fā)現(xiàn)這些模型成功模擬了全球海表溫度的破紀(jì)錄躍升，從而支持了這些模型在理解此類事件的特征、驅(qū)動(dòng)因素和后果方面的實(shí)用性。這些模型模擬表明，2023~2024年海表溫度破紀(jì)錄的躍升是一個(gè)極端事件，之后海表溫度預(yù)計(jì)將恢復(fù)到預(yù)期的長(zhǎng)期變暖趨勢(shì)。 ▲ Abstract： Global ocean surface temperatures were at record levels for more than a year from April 2023 onwards, exceeding the previous record in 2015–2016 by 0.25?°C on average between April 2023 and March 2024. The nearly global extent and unprecedented intensity of this event prompted questions about how exceptional it was and whether climate models can represent such record-shattering jumps in surface ocean temperatures. Here we construct observation-based synthetic time series to show that a jump in global sea surface temperatures that breaks the previous record by at least 0.25?°C is a 1-in-512-year event under the current long-term warming trend (1-in-205-year to 1-in-1,185-year event; 95% confidence interval). Without a global warming trend, such an event would have been practically impossible. Using 270 simulations from a wide range of fully coupled climate models, we show that these models successfully simulate such record-shattering jumps in global ocean surface temperatures, underpinning the models’ usefulness in understanding the characteristics, drivers and consequences of such events. These model simulations suggest that the record-shattering jump in surface ocean temperatures in 2023–2024 was an extreme event after which surface ocean temperatures are expected to revert to the expected long-term warming trend. |
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