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yexuqing木蟲之王 (文學(xué)泰斗)
太陽系系主任
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[交流]
Strategies for climate-resilient global wind and solar power systems
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Strategies for climate-resilient global wind and solar power systems 氣候適應(yīng)型全球風(fēng)能和太陽能發(fā)電系統(tǒng)戰(zhàn)略 ▲ 作者：Dongsheng Zheng, Xizhe Yan, Dan Tong, Steven J. Davis, Ken Caldeira, Yuanyuan Lin, et al. ▲鏈接： https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-025-09266-7 ▲摘要： 氣候變化可能會加劇未來風(fēng)能和太陽能占比較高的電力系統(tǒng)中供需失衡的頻率和嚴(yán)重程度。 研究組使用調(diào)度優(yōu)化模型來評估在固定且高滲透的風(fēng)能和太陽能發(fā)電背景下，與氣候加劇供需缺口相關(guān)的每小時成本潛在增加情況。他們將進(jìn)一步探討各種策略，以增強(qiáng)面對未來氣候變化的系統(tǒng)適應(yīng)性。 結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn)，在大多數(shù)國家，極端時段（定義為每小時成本位于上十分位數(shù)的時段，即成本最高的10%時段）成本在未來可能會變得更高，主要是因為對靈活發(fā)電容量投資的需求增加。例如，在共享社會經(jīng)濟(jì)路徑SSP1-2.6情景下，預(yù)計47個國家（未來發(fā)電量之和約占全球的43.5%）在極端時段的平均每小時成本將增加5%以上，其中最大增幅將達(dá)到23.7%。 通過因地制宜制定國別戰(zhàn)略，協(xié)調(diào)執(zhí)行多項措施以解決供需失衡問題，并提高系統(tǒng)靈活性，可大幅降低成本上漲的風(fēng)險。該研究結(jié)果為在降低系統(tǒng)成本的同時建立未來的氣候適應(yīng)性電力系統(tǒng)提供了重要見解。 ▲ Abstract： Climate change may amplify the frequency and severity of supply–demand mismatches in future power systems with high shares of wind and solar energy. Here we use a dispatch optimization model to assess potential increases in hourly costs associated with the climate-intensified gaps under fixed, high penetrations of wind and solar energy generation. We further explore various strategies to enhance system resilience in the face of future climate change. We find that extreme periods—defined as hours in the upper decile of hourly costs (that is, the most costly 10% of hours)—are likely to become more costly in the future in most countries, mainly because of the increased need for investments in flexible energy capacity. For example, under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway SSP1–2.6 scenario, 47 countries that together account for approximately 43.5% of global future electricity generation are projected to experience more than a 5% increase in average hourly costs during extreme periods, with the largest reaching up to 23.7%. The risk of rising costs could be substantially mitigated through tailored, country-specific strategies involving the coordinated implementation of multiple measures to address supply–demand imbalances and enhance system flexibility. Our findings provide important insights for building future climate-resilient power systems while reducing system costs. |
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